You can look at a players previous game logs to determine how risky a player is. You can do this with a simple formula in Excel. Then when you know if a player is risky or not, you can decide what type of tournaments you should play them in. For example, a risky player will be good for a GPP tournament and not a cash game.
Download the sample Excel file to follow along with the video:
To determine risk, we will calculate the standard deviation of a player’s score. So in order to do this, you need to get ahold of previous game logs.
To explain this, let’s use two examples.
First, player A has the following fantasy points in games: 20,25,15 and 20. If we average them out, the average is 20 points per game. Next we need to determine the variance per game. In game 1 it is 0 (20-20). In game 2 it is 5 (25-20). In game 3 it is -5 (15-20) and game 4 it is 0. (20-20).
When we add up the absolute value of those amounts, you get 10. Divide it by 4 games and your average variance is 2.5. So that would mean their average range of points is between 17.5 and 22.5. That seems pretty consistent.
Next, player B has the following scores: 2,38,12, and 28. If we average them out, that is also an average of 20. However, once we look at the variance per game, we will see a different story. Game 1 is 18 (2-20). Game 2 is 18 (38-20). Game 3 is 8 (12-20) and game 4 is 8 (28-20) Add those 4 variances up and you get 52. Divide it by 4 games and you get an average variance of 13. So their average range of points is between 7 and 33. That is highly volatile but a perfect candidate for a GPP tournament.
If you watch the video, I show the exact formulas you would use in a spreadsheet to determine this.